Risk Disclosure

1. General Trading Risk

Prediction markets are speculative instruments. The value of positions can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably based on real-world events, market sentiment, and information asymmetry.

• You may lose your entire investment. The value of any prediction market position can go to zero if the underlying event resolves against your position.
• Markets can move against you suddenly. News events, information releases, or large trades by other participants can cause rapid, adverse price movements.
• Liquidity is not guaranteed. You may not be able to exit a position at your desired price, or at all, during periods of low liquidity.
• Historical performance is not predictive. Past results, including those shown in paper trading, do not guarantee or indicate future performance.

2. Copy Trading Risk

The copy-trading functionality of trading.bot allows you to replicate trades made by high-volume Polymarket participants (“whales”). This introduces specific risks:

• Past whale performance does not guarantee future results. A whale’s historical profitability is no indication that they will continue to be profitable. Market conditions change, and strategies that previously worked may fail.
• Whale interests may not align with yours. Whales may have different risk tolerances, time horizons, or portfolio sizes. A trade that is appropriate for a whale with millions in capital may be inappropriate for your portfolio.
• Whales can change strategies without notice. The traders you follow may alter their approach, hedge positions in ways not visible to you, or exit markets entirely.
• Selection bias. The whales displayed on our platform are selected based on observable on-chain criteria. This does not capture the full picture of their trading activity or risk management.

3. Auto-Trade Execution Risk

When auto-copy trading is enabled, the Service executes trades automatically on your behalf based on detected whale activity.

4. AI Analysis Risk

trading.bot provides AI-generated market analysis, including whale consensus scoring, sentiment analysis, and signal strength indicators. You must understand the limitations of this analysis:

• AI analysis is algorithmic, not guaranteed. The AI models process publicly available data and may produce inaccurate, incomplete, or misleading outputs.
• Models have inherent limitations. AI systems can be subject to data quality issues, model drift, adversarial manipulation, and unforeseen edge cases.
• AI output is not financial advice. No analysis, signal, or recommendation generated by the AI should be construed as investment advice or a guarantee of any outcome.
• Do not rely solely on AI analysis. You should conduct your own research and apply your own judgment before making any trading decision.

5. Slippage and Execution Risk

Copy trading inherently involves a delay between the whale’s trade and the execution of your copy trade. This delay introduces several risks:

• Price slippage. The market price may move between the time a whale’s trade is detected and your copy trade is executed. You may receive a worse price than the whale.
• Partial fills. Your order may be partially filled if there is insufficient liquidity at the desired price.
• Failed executions. Trades may fail due to network congestion, insufficient funds, smart contract issues, or other technical factors.
• Configurable delay. While you can configure the copy delay (5 seconds to 5 minutes), even the shortest delay may result in meaningfully different execution prices in volatile markets.
• Network and infrastructure delays. Additional latency may be introduced by network conditions, blockchain congestion, or platform infrastructure.

6. Private Key Custody Risk

To enable live trading, you provide your Polymarket wallet private key to trading.bot. While we take extensive measures to protect your key (AES-256-GCM encryption at rest, isolated decryption during execution), you must understand the inherent risks:

• No system is immune to compromise. Despite industry-standard security measures, any system that stores private keys carries the risk of unauthorized access through exploits, insider threats, or zero-day vulnerabilities.
• Key compromise can result in total loss of funds. If your private key is compromised, an attacker may drain all funds from the associated wallet.
• Use a dedicated wallet. We strongly recommend using a dedicated Polymarket wallet containing only the funds you are willing to risk. Do not use a wallet that holds your primary savings or other significant assets.
• You remain responsible for your key. You are ultimately responsible for the security of your private key and wallet. Providing your key to any third-party service, including trading.bot, increases your attack surface.

7. Regulatory Risk

The regulatory landscape for prediction markets is evolving and uncertain. You face the following regulatory risks:

• Prediction markets may become restricted or prohibited. Governments and regulatory authorities may introduce laws, regulations, or enforcement actions that restrict, limit, or prohibit prediction market participation in your jurisdiction.
• Classification uncertainty. Regulatory authorities may classify prediction market positions as securities, derivatives, or gambling instruments, each of which carries different legal implications and compliance requirements.
• Tax implications. Gains and losses from prediction market trading may be subject to taxation. Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction and may change. You are solely responsible for understanding and complying with your tax obligations.
• Sanctions and compliance changes. Changes to OFAC regulations or other sanctions regimes may affect your ability to use the Service or access your funds.

8. Blockchain and Smart Contract Risk

The Service interacts with blockchain technology and smart contracts, which carry inherent risks:

• Smart contract vulnerabilities. The Polymarket protocol and its underlying smart contracts may contain undiscovered bugs, security vulnerabilities, or design flaws that could be exploited, resulting in loss of funds.
• Irreversible transactions. Once a transaction is confirmed on the blockchain, it cannot be reversed, cancelled, or modified by trading.bot, Polymarket, or any other party.
• Network congestion. Blockchain networks may experience periods of high congestion, resulting in delayed transaction confirmations, elevated gas fees, or failed transactions.
• Protocol changes. The Polymarket protocol may undergo upgrades, forks, or changes that could affect the functionality, value, or accessibility of your positions.
• Oracle risk. Prediction markets rely on oracles to resolve market outcomes. An oracle malfunction, manipulation, or dispute could result in incorrect market resolution and loss of funds.

9. No Guarantee of Availability

We strive to maintain continuous availability of the Service, but we cannot guarantee uninterrupted access:

• The Service may be temporarily unavailable due to scheduled maintenance, infrastructure failures, network outages, or other technical issues.
• During periods of unavailability, auto-copy trades may not execute, potentially causing you to miss trades or be unable to exit positions.
• We do not guarantee that the Service will be available in all jurisdictions or that it will remain available indefinitely.
• Third-party dependencies (Polymarket, blockchain networks, infrastructure providers) may experience outages that affect the Service.

10. Paper Trading Limitations

Paper trading provides a simulated trading experience. You must understand its limitations:

• Paper trading results do not account for all real-world factors, including actual slippage, market impact of your orders, and real-time liquidity conditions.
• Simulated performance is not indicative of live-trading performance. Your results may differ significantly when trading with real money.
• Paper trading does not expose you to the psychological pressures of risking real money, which can significantly affect decision-making and outcomes.

11. Acknowledgment

12. Contact Information

For questions about this Risk Disclosure, please contact us at:

legal@trading.bot